Prediction time. Lots of little birdies have been whispering in my ears. These predictions are based solely on my interpretation of recent events, historical behavior and the indignation of anonymous comm enters. I hope I am wrong.
First, I predict Luke Ravenstahl will announce the formation of Pittsburgh first Mayoral LGBT Advisory Committee two weeks before the primary. His advisors who are actual progressives will recognize this will delude people into thinking he, too, is a progressive and give him a little more lefty bounce over Dowd. It will work because people will want to think our Mayor is progressive enough to do SOMETHING/ANYTHING for the LGBTQ community and thus, willingly forget that it took over a year to make it happen. The committee will include one transwoman, two lesbians, one LGBT person of color and two gay white male business owners. There will be at least one troublemaker who wants to help poor people or use the term queer or some other such act of political indiscretion.
Second, Luke Ravenstahl will continue to be dismayed that he did not get the Steel City Stonewall endorsement (this came from multiple Luke supporter birdies) and render said committee essentially as a mouthpiece to announce his plans to attend various high profile LGBT events, thus solidifying his illusion of gay friendliness. He will also continue to ignore the advice of his progressive advisers who urge him to actually do SOMETHING/ANYTHING meaningful for the LGBTQ community so as to actually earn future endorsements. Vicious cycle ensues. As to why the Mayor's team thought he would get the endorsement over Dowd? I have no explanation except that they might be taking advice from the wrong people.
Third, gay people with privilege will continue to defend the Mayor's attendance at the 2009 PrideFest as a sign of how much better things have become in a City that passed anti-discrimination legislation and extended domestic partner benefits over a decade ago. When the Mayor couldn't vote. Luke just may ride in the parade during the parade leading up to the County Executive elections.
Fourth, Dan Onorato appears to be listening to all the mighty mighty D's pointing out the meaningful angle of the SOMETHING/ANYTHING argument. I predict he will use that same two week window to mention the County Anti-Discrimination Ordinance and shore up support for his protegee. He probably won't go so far as to wholeheartedly endorse it, but he will actually mention some variation of LGBT rather than insert diversity as a synonym for gay. (That's how Luke refers to our issues "diversity. I think there's a perpetual frat rule about drinking every time you say "gay.") Onorato will sign the legislation at PrideFest after it passes.
The County will still lag far behind the City in terms of progressive LGBT policy, but the Chief Executive will get the glow. The Mayor might, however, pull off the nifty trick of getting elected multiple times without engaging in an actual debate. He also gets bonus points for playing the "dead police officer" card while appearing to accuse one of his opponents of doing so, "Shame on you, Patrick!" indeed.
Oh wait, he did engage in a debate on WQED. The one where he opposed "gay unions." Ah yes.
Let's see what happens.
ps: I enjoy Carmen Robinson calling Luke and Patrick "divas". I can completely see KDKA treating her schedule as second class. Let's be real -- KDKA cancelled the debate b/c they sacrificed 8 hours of advertising revenue to let Marty Griffin narrate the police memorial, painful comment by comment.
